Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has just introduced his new "Partisan Propensity Index" (PPI). If you've been following elections closely, you're probably already familiar with the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) from Cook, and similar statistics from Swing State Project. Cook's idea is to look at how each Congressional District voted for President compared to the nationwide average. So, for example, the NJ5 district (Garrett's) is rated R+7, meaning it voted 7 points more Republican than nationwide, while NJ13 (Sire's) is rated D+21. You can see why Democrats had such a hard time even with a good candidate against Garrett, and why Republicans didn't seriously contest NJ13 when Menendez left it. Unlike Congressional races, where often one candidate is hardly covered in the news and has hardly any campaign budget, the two party's Presidential candidates are well known. The PVI index is widely used to identify competitive districts.
Here's Silver's idea:
Are there any systematic differences in the ways that votes tend to fall for the Congress, as opposed to the Presidency? Are certain districts better or worse for Democrats, or Republicans, than PVI alone would suggest?
It turns out that there's one other factor which is fairly useful to look at, which is socioeconomic status. Relative to how they do for the Presidency, Democrats are somewhat more likely to win races for Congress in poorer districts, and somewhat more likely to lose them in wealthier ones. Another way to put this is that a split ticket of Republican for President, Democrat for Congress is more likely to occur in a poor district, whereas a split ticket of Democrat for President, Republican for Congress is more likely to occur in a wealthy one.
Click through for the statistical analysis he uses. Silver expresses his PPI index as the chance for Democrats to win an open seat in an average election cycle, based solely on two factors: the recent Presidential Vote and the percentage of the population with incomes under $25,000/yr. Here are the results for New Jersey:
District
Name
PVI
PPI
NJ11
Frelinhguysen
R+7
2.5%
NJ5
Garrett
R+7
3.2%
NJ4
Smith
R+6
10.9%
NJ7
Lance
R+3
13.9%
NJ3
Adler
R+1
27.9%
NJ12
Holt
D+5
62.9%
NJ2
LoBiondo
D+1
66.0%
NJ6
Pallone
D+8
85.2%
NJ9
Rothman
D+9
88.8%
NJ8
Pascrell
D+10
96.6%
NJ1
Andrews
D+12
97.0%
NJ13
Sires
D+21
99.95%
NJ10
Payne
D+33
99.998%
The main lesson, if you take this ratings seriously, is that New Jersey's wealth makes the battleground Congressional districts lean Republican compared to how they vote at the Presidential level. In many states, the R+3 and even the R+7 districts have a great chance of going Democratic at the Congressional level, but here NJ5 and NJ7 are actually quite unfavorable, and should vote for the House like R+14 districts in the rest of the country. When we evaluate how our candidates did, it's worth keeping this effect in mind.
Frank LoBiondo's district is the poorest in New Jersey, and by this measure is slightly better for Democrats than Holt's district, but we are stuck with the echo of 1994. In case it's not obvious, being an incumbent matters, scandals matter, and cycles can be more or less Republican than the average cycle, and you should always remember that the most likely outcome doesn't always happen. All of our 2010 races have incumbents so the percentages definitely do not apply. Also, this is the last election in the current districts.
Our guest will be Ed Potosnak, who is challenging Congressman Leonard Lance in the 7th District. We'll get the low down on his campaign and his thoughts on the issues of the day. Adam and I will also recap the last week in NJ politics and I'm sure he will have something to say about my next step.
So, join us for New Jersey's fastest half-hour of political talk. We'll see if we can keep up with the change-by-the-minute pace of news coming from just about everywhere these days.
Something special on your mind? Leave your thoughts in the comments, and maybe we can have some fun with them on air. Or, feel free to give us a call tonight, and share what's on your mind. Remember, it's all LIVE, so don't be afraid - join us!
I do not think Leonard Lance can be beaten in a Republican Primary. Even if David Larsen won, he would be cut out in redistricting in 2012."
Doherty's statement is sure to anger some of the same people that put him in office, but his decision seems to be more about is own political standing and thinking Lance is the safe bet so it's better to keep his powder dry in this one. Larsen will need to raise some seed money to show people he's serious and not just looking to loan his campaign money for the effort. I'm told that Lance won't be the only Republican to get a challenge from the tea party crowd as someone may run against Frank Lobiondo.
Then in the seats held by Democrats, there are a few primary races to run against the Incumbent. There are numerous candidate running in the 3rd district and Justin Murphy could also get support from the tea partiers as he runs again this year. There is also the primary to run against Rush Holt as Mike Halfacre and Scott Sipprelle will face off in a right v. further right battle and there may be more candidates to jump in the race. Assemblywoman Mary Pat Angelini and others have expressed interest in challenging to run against Frank Pallone as well. The tea partiers are even saying they may put someone up against Scott Garrett from the right, if that's possible in comments to stories that are being written. The amount of candidate running in GOP primaries can be seen as an indication of the enthusiasm and also anger out there with the public right now, who only want to see 8% of incumbent re-elected right now.
By contrast, the Democrats in New Jersey don't seem to like primaries as much. The only primary challenge I've seen so far is one against John Adler, but his warchest will make that an uphill climb. I know inside political circles they tend to shy away from primaries, because it makes you spend resources you want to conserve for the general election battle and take stands you often don't want to defend. But sometimes primaries can better prepare candidates for the trial by fire that is a general election campaign. Even if the GOP candidates don't win their primary challenges, the incumbents will already be in campaign mode given the voter angst right now. The competitive primaries to challenge Democratic incumbents will season them for the rigors of a race. With the climate and public opinion where it is, it's important that candidates don't wait to start their campaigns and these primaries insure that the GOP won't.
The DNC announced the other day that they will target Congressmen Lance and Lobiondo as part of their effort to focus on the group of 32 House Republicans who opposed the healthcare bill that are in Congressional Districts won by President Obama in 2008:
Through this campaign, the DNC will send a message to Republicans who have reflexively said no to health insurance reform by urging them to do the right thing and support reform when it comes to the House again for a final vote. The campaign will include press releases, Op-Eds and letters to the editor, local events and will leverage the energy and enthusiasm of the DNC's grassroots supporters and its email list in holding these members accountable for their vote. The effort may also include paid advertising. DNC National Press Secretary Hari Sevugan released the following statement on the effort:
"You would think a Member of Congress should think twice about voting against health insurance reform that their families and small businesses so desperately need and want. But you have to think to vote against health insurance reform in a Congressional District won by President Obama just a year ago could be a political death knell at a time when Americans are clamoring for solutions to vexing issues like health care," said Sevugan. "These members not only represent districts that voted for President Obama, but also where health insurance reform, as in the rest of the country, is badly needed and where passing it will be politically popular. Some on the very far right wing would have people believe that voting for health insurance reform is a mistake politically - when the truth is that any Republican who votes against reform, especially those from districts won by the President, will undoubtedly place themselves in real political peril."
We've focused here at Blue Jersey a good deal of a attention and effort on getting the people in our own party on board with healthcare reform, but the DNC is taking a look at the other side of the aisle and lining up their targets for the next election based on what they see. In separate releases, the DNC noted that President Obama received 54% of the vote in Congressman LoBiondo's district and didn't give a percentage in Lance's district, but pointed to the President's victory. In fact, they and Organizing for America started putting out those releases hitting Lance and LoBiondo immediately following the vote on Saturday night. Congressman LoBiondo's spokesman had a simple, short response to the targeting:
Asked about the DNC's targeting of LoBiondo, Galanes asked, "Are they targeting John Adler? ... Just curious."
Are we in Congress or pre-school? A bad vote by Johnny doesn't excuse Franky from doing the right thing by his people.
Promoted by Rosi. - - I live in NJ-7, too. When do I get my phone call? Nah, that's okay, I didn't mean it.
And so it begins. We got our first robocall of the 2010 election against Leonard Lance (NJ7) today. I'm not sure, nor do I really care, who Accountable America is, but they left a voice mail for me or my boyfriend today and here it is in it's full glory.
Hello, this is a message from Accountable America. Why is the recession and increased unemployment dragging on? We need to ask our Congressman Leonard Lance. He voted against spending money to put America back to work. Congressman Lance voted against extending unemployment benefits and lowering taxes for 95 percent of working Americans. However, Congressman Lance did vote for executive bonuses for the same Wall Street Firms who took taxpayer bailout money .Call Congressman Leonard Lance and tell him we need to create jobs and to end this recession. Tell him to stop protecting bonuses for the Wall Street Executives who caused this mess.
It'd be more effective with a phone number, but I guess they're just trying to drive negatives at this point.
We hear he's turning to vulnerable Republicans and telling them he can get the DCCC to "go easy" on them next year if they vote for the Supplemental tomorrow. And Eric Cantor's office is really pissed.
It's one thing if he makes a deal with Vern Buchanan in Florida or Chris Smith in New Jersey, but we're hearing that he's offering to protect Republicans who have been slated as major DCCC targets, like Thaddeus McCotter (R-MI), Bill Young (R-FL), Leonard Lance R-NJ) and Charlie Dent (R-PA).
This is not a deal to get universal health care passed, which I could certainly forgive. This is a deal to vote for A. The Iraq War, B. Bailing out European banks via the IMF, and C. Covering up abuse photos. There's not much reason any Democrat should vote for it, much less make a deal to protect Leonard Lance.
Let's hope the rumor is not true, or the DCCC has the guts to tell Rahm he's not their boss.
According to the Cook Report we have three districts that are ripe for the out-party, two for the Rs and one for the Ds. Every two years they put together a new analysis (find out the metrics elsewhere) of the Partisan Voting (PV) index of Congressional districts based on the last vote.
Last year the only ones that were close were NJ3 for John Adler, NJ2 for Frank Lobiondo, and NJ7 for Leonard Lance. The rest are pretty much out of reach barring a live goat or a dead boy.
vmars suggests an easy, but vital, action item here, which I just did in under 2 minutes. Try it, it's a great idea - promoted from diaries by Rosi
Leonard Lance is at it again, trying to garner stimulus funding and the credit associated with it even though he voted against it. Heck, he went so far as to write an op-ed piece lambasting Obama and the Democrats for putting it together.
In the letter written on Monday, Lance said he was concerned about the delay in delivering the funds for the "shovel-ready" project available in the stimulus package, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, passed by Congress earlier this year and signed into law by Obama.
Congress passed it, yeah, but of the hundreds of Republicans in Congress only two voted for it. And Lance wasn't one of them.
UPDATE: BTW, you can call Lance out on the hypocrisy the papers won't mention in the comments section of the MyCentralNJ article. Just register and remind the reporters to get more than one view of the issue.
Generally people like honors, but Leonard Lance is not thrilled with his inclusion by the DCCC in their "Hypocrisy Hall of Fame." Lance was inducted after he started claiming credit for projects he opposed. Here's what vmars said at the time:
You never heard Lance say this before the stimulus vote. It would have gone against the GOP bosses position that stimulus spending was bad if Lance had suggested we should put the Green Brook Flood Control Project in the stimulus package. And going against the bosses can be bad juju for a freshman Rep.
Further proof that this was a partisan effort to take credit for a bill he voted against, Lance toured the area solely with Republican Pilato -- former staffer for Mike Ferguson -- and none of the Democratic council members from Bound Brook.
He didn't invite the Democratic Mayors of Green Brook, Manville or North Plainfield either, three towns that flooded massively in the 1973 storm that spawned the Green Brook Flood Control Project, flooded again in 1999 when Hurricane Floyd hit and gave new impetus to the effort. Manville again flooded in 1997 when the Nor'Easter hit.
No, after voting in lockstep with his party against the Democrats in the House Lance blocks out Democrats from working with him in protecting their homes and businesses from flooding.
In the State Senate Lance had a reputation for bi-partisanship and working to solve problems without being a blind party follower. In just a month as a member of Congress he's giving up that hard earned image to become another drone in the national Republican party.
Making an appearance at the special convention at the Clinton Township Middle School after attending the Union County Republican Convention today, Lance said he preferred a GOP alternative stimulus package proposed by Republican Whip U.S. Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Richmond) to what he saw ultimately as a bloated Democratic offering.
"I favored the Cantor package totaling $500 billion, which included money for shovel-ready projects," Lance told PolitickerNJ.com.
But which shovel ready projects? Lance's claim is he supported the bill put forth by the minority whip, whose job it is to keep members of the party in line? Did that bill even include specific funding for the Green Brook project he's claiming, or just other projects? That would indicate he played follow the leader with his party rather than standing out as a maverick for his district. By the Lance standard, everyone could claim credit for supporting everything if the standard is legislation that doesn't go anywhere. Lance opposed the stimulus package that was signed and will fund the projects he's standing with for photo ops. And it's more insulting to see him stand there after opposing, while the NRCC hammers John Adler for having the courage to vote for the package before touting its results. Where was the Lance amendment in this package dealing with Green Brook if he was so passionately committed to the project? He could have introduced that to be included in the final package. Instead he's hoping you either don't realize or aren't paying attention.
promoted by clammyc because we should continue to highlight the lunacy coming from the republican delegation.
Twice Congressman Leonard Lance (R-NJ7) was given a chance to vote up or down on the economic stimulus package signed by President Barack Obama yesterday. Twice Leonard Lance chose to stand with his party instead of with his constituents in his vote.
He even wrote a piece defending his vote against the bill that was run in multiple papers, suggesting that it was a vote of honor rather than a vote of partisanship.
But now Lance is trying to have it both ways, touting his "principled" vote against spending while getting photo-ops for the papers hoping stimulus money will come to his district.
Under the terms of the stimulus plan signed into law Tuesday by President Barack Obama, infrastructure projects that are "shovel-ready" could be the first to be funded with economic recovery money.
That's the hope of Rep. Leonard Lance, R-Clinton Township, who toured the project's construction sites Tuesday morning with Mayor Carey Pilato, members of the Green Brook Flood Control Commission and representatives of the Army Corps of Engineers, which is overseeing the project.
"This is a classic example of a "shovel-ready' project," Lance said after the tour.
You never heard Lance say this before the stimulus vote. It would have gone against the GOP bosses position that stimulus spending was bad if Lance had suggested we should put the Green Brook Flood Control Project in the stimulus package. And going against the bosses can be bad juju for a freshman Rep.
Further proof that this was a partisan effort to take credit for a bill he voted against, Lance toured the area solely with Republican Pilato -- former staffer for Mike Ferguson -- and none of the Democratic council members from Bound Brook.
He didn't invite the Democratic Mayors of Green Brook, Manville or North Plainfield either, three towns that flooded massively in the 1973 storm that spawned the Green Brook Flood Control Project, flooded again in 1999 when Hurricane Floyd hit and gave new impetus to the effort. Manville again flooded in 1997 when the Nor'Easter hit.
No, after voting in lockstep with his party against the Democrats in the House Lance blocks out Democrats from working with him in protecting their homes and businesses from flooding.
In the State Senate Lance had a reputation for bi-partisanship and working to solve problems without being a blind party follower. In just a month as a member of Congress he's giving up that hard earned image to become another drone in the national Republican party.
UPDATE: Jay Lassiter shows us that Lance is using Facebook to pimp his wish for more stimulus dollars he voted against to come to NJ. Sheesh.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), chaired by Congressman Chris Van Hollen, today announced the DCCC is launching the second phase of the Putting Families First campaign on the economic recovery bill by running automated calls in seven targeted Republican freshman districts. The calls focus on the Republicans' out of step priorities by putting partisan politics before the needs of the jobs in their districts.
Naturally, Leonard Lance (NJ7) is one of the targets of the calls, which go something like this:
Did you know Congressman Leonard Lance voted against economic recovery that would immediately create and save nearly 106,000 New Jersey jobs?
Yes, he did not merely vote to do nothing in a crisis, as I would put it, but against recovery itself. Come to think of it, it's probably true.
Let me know what you think of the DCCC calls. Are they an important step, a waste of time, or are you just bitter that the calls would have done more good in 2006?
Radio ads targeting 28 Republican congressmen - including freshman Leonard Lance - hit the airwaves tomorrow morning, courtesy of Rep. Chris Van Hollen and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The ads call out some of vulnerable representatives who voted against President Obama's economic recovery plan, which got zero votes from House Republicans but passed anyway - 244 to 188. Credit the House's Democratic majority for that.
Lance's vote - siding with his party in a big, splashy show of unity against more responsible efforts to solve the country's problems - could absolutely have been predicted. And it's a damned shame that the same DCCC didn't see that coming and help Linda Stender drive the point home that Lance was likely to vote with the GOP against forward movement, which he now has. But I digress...
The published text of the ads is rough stuff, calling out the congressmen by name on stations that serve their Districts, and accusing each of prioritizing things DCCC thinks will resonate with voters, over needed components in the economic recovery plan. Choosing to bail out banks but opposing tax breaks for the bulk of American voters. Backing expenditures for new schools in Iraq, but failing to support the plan's spending on schools at home. Benefitting themselves from healthcare at taxpayers' expense, while children go uninsured. The ad targetting Lance and 9 of his colleagues is about job creation:
Did you know Congressman [Leonard Lance] voted against economic recovery to immediately create and save over [insert number here] [New Jersey] jobs? Times are tough, tell [Leonard Lance] to put families before politics.
Host Michael Aron sat down with Congressmen Elect John Adler and Leonard Lance for this week's On the Record. The incoming Congressmen had a discussion about the many issues the face as they head to Congress and what remains as they leave Trenton:
Adler and Lance will join their colleagues to be sworn in this Tuesday, January 6th. If you are planning to attend the festivities, please consider posting some of your pictures and stories.
Post-mortems are a sad duty in any world, in no small way because it means "after death." The death in this case are the hopes of thousands of volunteers, donors and staff to send Linda Stender to Congress to represent New Jersey's 7th Congressional District.
This has been a four year effort for many of us, starting before Linda even decided to run in 2006. It is hard for some of us because we know Linda personally and like her very much, and worked so hard and invested so much in getting her to the finish line.
In 2006 we came within 1.5 percent of the vote against a three term Republican named Mike Ferguson. It was a stunningly unexpected effort that shocked the national party which gave secondary support to the campaign while dumping millions in others where the margin was seven points or more.
In 2008 Linda lost by a little less than nine percent, a stunning defeat in a race where we saw polls putting Stender even or just behind State Senator Leonard Lance in the days before the election. It was made all the more stunning in that 2008 was a better year for Democrats than 2006, yet the Stender campaign fell far behinds its previous result.
How could that happen? Lance didn't run a great campaign. Stender had lots more money. The DCCC dropped over a million dollars into the district, while the NRCC walked away and focused on NJ3. Registration for Democrats jumped dramatically. And then there was that guy running for President who brought Democratic turnout to amazing levels. The environment couldn't have been better.
But she lost anyway.
Because, as near as we can tell, they forgot all the lessons of 2006 that got them close. Instead of building on the energy and volunteers from the previous election they brought in an entirely new team from outside the district, ignored the organizations like Democracy for America that supported Stender in 2006, and blew off local expertise in favor of a cookie-cutter campaign.
Many people projected that Somerset County and the NJ7 would go blue as part of the Obama wave. It didn't happen...not even close. Why? How did the Freeholder and NJ7 campaigns go so wrong? Or is this "As Good As It Gets?"
In Republican Counties (see useful table below the fold to see where your county sits in the rank), I think there has been too much focus on county-wide, Legislative, and Congressional campaigns. These county and regional campaigns just don't seem to be winable...not yet. I feel that the focus should be on municipal success. We need to build strong Democratic Municipal Committees (DMCs). Strong DMCs can do grassroots education to make voters understand the importance of local, county, and congressional government positions. And a strong DMC is vital for building the resumes and experience of candidates at the higher levels. We need to crawl before we can walk.
UPDATE: John McCain concedes. Will Obama make him Secretary of Defense?
UPDATE: Stender concedes in NJ7.
I will be heading over to the Shulman victory party in a bit, and am also live blogging the NJ-3, NJ-5 and NJ-7 results at Daily Kos, but consider this the live results thread.
Polls obviously close at 8PM, and we will post results as we get them in. There are other Blue Jersey front pagers who are at the Adler and Stender camps, so hopefully they will be checking in as well (and feel free to edit this with any info that comes in as well).
I spent the day canvassing in Glen Rock after voting at 7AM, and it was bee-you-tee-ful outside.
How was your day?
OK--so there isn't now is wireless here, and I am plugged in, so the updates may not be as quick as I would like. Other front pagers - please add what you can if you can.
UPDATE: MSNBC calls it for Lautenberg. Let's guess if he wins by more than 20%.
UPDATE (NJ-3): With 58% reporting, Adler has cut into Myers' lead, which is now 53% - 47%. Adler wins, Myers concedes. NJ delegation now 8-5.
UPDATE (NJ-5): It doesn't look good for Dennis. With 89% of Bergen reporting and none from Sussex, Garrett is up by 6% in Bergen and by 10% overall. Race called for Garrett. Dennis now giving concession speech - but it is a helluva speech. I am very proud to have been involved with this campaign and a shout out to Dennis and Jeff Hauser for all they did and stood for.
UPDATE (NJ-7): With 52% 63% in, it is still 52-41%, Lance leading. Word from local campaign offices (not Stender's, but other campaigns) is that things are not looking good.
Promoted by Jason Springer: I voted for Kendy's future today.
My daughter was born on July 2, 2004. I was running for Somerset County Freeholder that year on a ticket with John Kerry and John Edwards for President and the first election after her birth was on November 2, 2004 -- her four month birthday. We took a picture or two to commemorate. The first is her at the polling location in North Plainfield, NJ and the other is Kendy in a Rudy for Freeholder onesie and her beautiful mother Maureen at the staging place for our GOTV effort.
That night we lost. I knew I was going to lose, but I thought John Kerry would be my next President. Instead Bush won, and my daughter had to spend the first four years of her life living under that ... man.
Obama should win with little difficulty in this reliably Democratic state, but two House seats are tossups, and a third is a potential upset. In the 3rd District, GOP Rep. H. James Saxton is retiring after 12 terms, but Democratic challenger John Adler, a state senator from Cherry Hill, has strong party backing and has assembled one of the best field organizations in the country against Chris Myers, a Lockheed Martin executive and Republican mayor of Medford.
The 7th District, also a GOP-created vacancy, had been viewed as friendlier to Republicans, but Democratic state legislator Linda Stender has proven a tough competitor against state Sen. Leonard Lance. Republicans are less worried about, but still distracted by, the 5th District race, featuring Dennis Shulman, a blind rabbi endorsed by New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg (I), against GOP Rep. Scott Garrett. Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg is expected to win easily over former congressman Dick Zimmer.
Lets hope that field organization pulls Adler across the finish line in NJ-3 and the Republicans are so distracted by the Shulman campaign in the 5th, they lose both NJ-5 and NJ-7. Best of luck to all of our campaigns.
Use this handy-dandy form to post your winners in the NJ races. Winner gets $7 in monopoly money from the old set in their closest. Mine are after the jump.
