PPP now polling New Jersey

by: Hopeful

Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 11:43:38 PM EDT

Public Policy Polling (PPP) has released a poll of New Jersey and promised more every month until the election. This is a poll of 1,094 "likely" New Jersey voters. The only good news is that I'll stop complaining Corzine can't poll above 40%:

  • Corzine 41%
  • Christie 51%

    The bottom line is this seems just like the other June polls: 39-51 (Strategic Vision), 40-50 (Quinnipiac), and 38-51 (Rasmussen).  Christie is at 51% and that's a great place for a challenger.  Corzine's approval-disapproval is 36-56 in this PPP poll.  PPP's Tom Jensen argues that "if he can make those voters to whom Christie is currently a blank slate dislike his challenger even more than they currently dislike him he has a chance." He estimates 36% of the electorate say they are persuadable.  The full data are in this PDF.  

    Fun results:

  • If only women vote: Corzine leads 48-42.  54% of the sample was women, so you can guess how he's doing with men.

  • The Unaffiliated Swing Vote: Christie has a crushing 60-26% amongst independents.  Christies's favorable-unfavorable numbers are 46-28 in this group.

  • The Bush Effect: Amongst voters age 18-29, Corzine leads 67-8. Yes, that is 8% for the Republican.  This group dislikes Christie (8% favorable, 50% unfavorable) and likes Corzine (67-25).  I suppose a cynic might also point out they are less likely to pay property taxes.  They are, sadly, only 10% of the poll sample.

  • Area Codes: Corzine leads only in area codes 201 and 856. Can you say cities?

    All these breakdowns should be taken with a grain of salt because the sample sizes are much smaller.

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