Public Policy Polling (PPP) has released a poll of New Jersey and promised more every month until the election. This is a poll of 1,094 "likely" New Jersey voters. The only good news is that I'll stop complaining Corzine can't poll above 40%:
Corzine 41%
Christie 51%
The bottom line is this seems just like the other June polls: 39-51 (Strategic Vision), 40-50 (Quinnipiac), and 38-51 (Rasmussen). Christie is at 51% and that's a great place for a challenger. Corzine's approval-disapproval is 36-56 in this PPP poll. PPP's Tom Jensen argues that "if he can make those voters to whom Christie is currently a blank slate dislike his challenger even more than they currently dislike him he has a chance." He estimates 36% of the electorate say they are persuadable. The full data are in this PDF.
Fun results:
If only women vote: Corzine leads 48-42. 54% of the sample was women, so you can guess how he's doing with men.
The Unaffiliated Swing Vote: Christie has a crushing 60-26% amongst independents. Christies's favorable-unfavorable numbers are 46-28 in this group.
The Bush Effect: Amongst voters age 18-29, Corzine leads 67-8. Yes, that is 8% for the Republican. This group dislikes Christie (8% favorable, 50% unfavorable) and likes Corzine (67-25). I suppose a cynic might also point out they are less likely to pay property taxes. They are, sadly, only 10% of the poll sample.
Area Codes: Corzine leads only in area codes 201 and 856. Can you say cities?
All these breakdowns should be taken with a grain of salt because the sample sizes are much smaller.
